WAR with IRAN? It's closer than you think....

From John Robb of Global Guerrillas.--SS

WAR with IRAN? It's closer than you think....:

Israel's hawks are VERY close to manufacturing a full scale war with Iran. On Monday the 28th of November, it used special operations forces (referred to below as the "Hand of God") to blow up a portion of an Iranian Nuclear facility near Isfahan (confirmed by satellite imagery). This follows on the heels of another explosion at Tehran facility that killed an Iranian general.

What's even more worrisome is that Israeli hawks are actively claiming responsibility for this sabotage (from the Times of London):

• Dan Meridor. the Israeli Intelligence Minister, said: "There are countries who impose economic sanctions and there are countries who act in other ways in dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat."


• Major-General Giora Eiland, Israel's former director of national security, told Israel's army radio that the Isfahan blast was no accident. "There aren't many coincidences, and when there are so many events there is probably some sort of guiding hand, though perhaps it's the hand of God"


• A former Israeli intelligence official cited at least two other explosions [that we haven't heard about] that have "successfully neutralised" Iranian bases associated with the Shahab-3, the medium-range missile that could be adapted to carry a nuclear warhead. "This is something everyone in the West wanted to see happen," he added.

Ok, let's put this into perspective:

1. These claims are blood in the water. Israel's hawks see Iran as an existential threat to Israel. They WANT a war with Iran. This is an attempt to make that war happen.


2. The US, from President Obama on down, are incapable of reigning Israel in. Israeli hawks are now operating open loop (without restraint).


3. Iran's anger at these attackes, demonstrated by an attack on the UK embassy in Tehran, is just the start. Who knows what they will do next?

What does this mean? A war with Iran would:

• Cause an immediate energy shock. Oil prices shooting through $200 + a barrel. Lost production from Iran, Iraq, and most of the monarchies. A potential loss of 6-10 m barrels a day?


• Global depression deepens. Prices over $150 cause immediate recessions. Higher than that, who knows? Usually, a slow down in economic activity reduces demand, however with peak oil (we hit the max the world could produce a couple of years ago) and lost production from the Middle East, that price could remain high even in the face of a deep, deep economic depression.


• Networked Resilient Communities. Nobody is going to save you. You need to prepare by building or moving to a resilient community that produces most of the energy and food it needs to survive.

The US is Hollowing Out (Quickly)

From Global Guerillas.--SS

The US is Hollowing Out (Quickly):

There are two great stories from the news that are worth reading:

• A new bill called the National Defense Authorization act is on its way (promoted by Senator John McCain). This bill will make it legal for the federal government to arrest (both within and outside US borders) and hold indefinitely (without trial) anybody (including US citizens). Essentially, this makes it possible for the US military to take on the role and function of a secret police force.
  


• How Hank Paulson, while he was the US Treasury Secretary (at a time when he was arguably the most important gov't official in the world), gave his cronies in the global financial industry a continuous stream of inside information on what the government would do to stop 2008 financial crisis (this info helped this inside group hedge themselves and profit while nobody else could).

Combine the recent efforts by John McCain to create a police state with the revelations of Paulson's corruption (crony capitalism) and you can only conclude that worse is coming. How much worse? To me, it's a sure sign that the US is rapidly becoming a hollow state. Hollow states are the end game for modern nation-states. What's a hollow state?

The hollow state has the trappings of a modern nation-state ("leaders", membership in international organizations, regulations, laws, and a bureaucracy) but it lacks any of the legitimacy, services, and control of its historical counter-part. It is merely a shell of a state that serves as a legal conduit and enforcement mechanisms for global financial interests to loot what's left of the state's economy. Corruption and violence are its only traits.

If you aren't scoping out or building your own Resilient Community to avoid this disaster, you should be.

The Latest Roberts Court Atrocity

People don't pay enough attention to the Supreme Court.--SS

The Latest Roberts Court Atrocity:

Emily Bazelon has a terrific piece about a recent Supreme Court order that has received very little attention. The case concerned Shirley Ree Smith, a grandmother given 15 years-to-life for the death of her granddaughter. The conviction was based on "shaken baby syndrome," although the most current evidence suggests that it's extremely unlikely that Smith caused her granddaughter's death. Taking this evidence into account, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals freed Smith in 2006. Last month, as the culmination of a lengthy back-and-forth between the Court and 9CA, the higher court by a 6-3 majority reinstated the jury verdict, requiring Smith to return to prison although she is almost certainly innocent and does not pose any
threat to society.

Taken in isolation, the Court's order is by no means outrageous. Generally, appellate courts only permitted to assess legal errors by lower courts, not to second-guess how juries evaluate evidence. It should be noted, however, that the evolution of scientific evidence makes this case somewhat different, in that the appellate courts knew things that the jury could not have. Also, the Supreme Court's own actions are not exactly a model of judicial restraint, as Ginsburg noted in her dissent:

By taking up the case, one may ask, what does the Court achieve other than to prolong Smith’s suffering and her separation from her family. Is this Court’s intervention really necessary? Our routine practice counsels no…

[…]

This Court, therefore, has no law clarifying role to play. Its summary adjudication seems to me all the more untoward for these reasons: What is now known about shaken baby syndrome (SBS) casts grave doubt on the charge leveled against Smith; and uncontradicted evidence shows that she poses no danger whatever to her family or anyone else in society.

In the abstract, one can understand the majority's response that the injustice in this case should be addressed by the governor granting clemency rather than by the appellate courts. But in practice, preventing federal appellate courts from acting is likely to lead to many cases to situations in which nobody is willing to be accountable and redress obvious injustices. Take, for example, the case Cameron Todd Willingham, who was executed based on forensic evidence that was known before his execution to be utterly worthless. The appellate courts didn't act, the commission charged with evaluating death sentences didn't act, and the governor not only didn't act but acted to suppress an inquiry. It's hard to see how requiring appellate courts ignore what is effectively new evidence suggesting innocence serves the interests of either justice or the rule of law.

One final point about this case: as Dahlia Lithwick quietly mentioned in her profile of the Court's newest justice, the Court's five Republican appointees were joined by Elena Kagan. In this context, Kagan's vote wasn't just window dressing, as it prevented the Court from giving the case a full hearing. There's a lot to like in Kagan's first term on the Court, but for those of us who were skeptical of Kagan's appointment this is something to be concerned about.

Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day:

Retiring member of Congress Barney Frank on the House under Republican rule: "It consists half of people who think like Michele Bachmann and half of people who are afraid of losing a primary to people who think like Michele Bachmann and that leaves very little room to work things out."

Newt's Neocon Army

Maybe Newt will pick Dick "deficits don't matter" Cheney for VP, and we can charge a war with Iran onto the credit card.--SS

Newt's Neocon Army:

When it comes to foreign policy, the Republican frontrunner likes it old-school. Neo-old school.

We've had two foreign policy themed debates in the GOP primary now, which have provided ample opportunity to see what a Republican foreign policy would look like in 2013. And in the case of Newt Gingrich, it would probably look like a kind of neocon fantasy land.

Foreign Policy published an excellent rundown of Gingrich's foreign policy advising team, most of whom "have known Newt for decades, and see themselves as helping a candidate who already boasts a long track record and well-formed intellectual identity when it comes to foreign policy."

Here's a taste of World Team Gingrich:

David Wurmser: Gingrich's Middle East policy adviser was a notorious member of Vice President Cheney's inner circle that pushed the U.S. into war in Iraq. Once he was questioned during an espionage probe while in the vice president's office, and he was one of the names driving the initial support for the later disgraced Ahmed Chalabi. Asked by the Daily Telegraph in 2007 if he was a neocon, he offered this: "There's nothing 'neo' about me. I'm a very medieval sort of guy."

James Woosley: A former director of the CIA, Woolsey recently spoke at a panel hosted by the founder of Judicial Watch focused on President Obama's "political jihad promoting Islam around the world." Woolsey is a serious Iran hawk, warning that the way the West is dealing with the nation at the moment "rhymes with what was taking place in the 1930s [with Nazi Germany]". Woolsey is a Democrat (of the Lieberman school) but he's helped Republicans running for president before. In 2008, he advised John McCain.

Stephen Yates: Another ex-Cheney national security team member, Yates is known among other things for his work on China. One former U.S. ambassador to China familiar with Yates says he views "China as the solution to 'enemy deprivation syndrome.'" As Counterpunch explained the theory, "You need some unifying enemy after the collapse of the Soviet Union." Not exactly the most productive way to view one of America's most important trading partner, perhaps.

It's not just Gingrich who's dipping in the neocon well to form a national security strategy. Rick Perry, who was once the frontrunner before descending out of view like so many before him, leaned on former Donald Rumsfeld deputy Doug Feith, best known for pushing the Al queda-Iraq connection in the run up to the Iraq War and being called by former Gen. Tommy Franks "the f***ing stupidest guy on the face of the earth."

But no one can top Michele Bachmann when it comes to extremist foreign policy advisers. No less than Islamic fearmonger-in-chief Frank Gaffney himself has been a foreign policy adviser to her campaign.

Foreign policy is a favorite topic inside the beltway, though with the down economy (and a Democratic president in office who never met a missile-laden drone he didn't like) it's not clear how much of a role arguments over international affairs will have on the presidential campaign. Republicans certainly like to ding President Obama over Israel and Iran, but it's hard to predict how important those fights will be down the line. Still, the willingness of Republicans to embrace the Bush foreign policy team -- which in the end were among the least popular of his administration -- is maybe telling.

Fake Occupy website tries to undermine Wisconsin recall, claims enough signatures already gathered

Republicans are liars and cheaters.--SS

Fake Occupy website tries to undermine Wisconsin recall, claims enough signatures already gathered:

The petition drive to recall Gov. Scott Walker is ongoing, despite what a fake website wants you to believe.

(@taa_madison/Twitpic)

At least a few conservatives are making good on their threats to undermine the new round of Wisconsin recalls by using some sleazy, even illegal, tactics. A fake website claiming the recall petition drive is over is their latest:

A website posing as "Occupy-Madison" is seeking to undermine the petition drive in Wisconsin to recall Republican Gov. Scott Walker by claiming enough signatures have been gathered. In a November 27 blog entitled, "Walker Recall a success, all necessary signatures collected," the accompanying post says: "The Committee to Recall Scott Walker and United Wisconsin have issued a report stating they have succeeded in collecting all necessary signatures... We are thankful for the efforts, [and] we are suspending all collection activity."

As of this writing, the website in question is not functional. It currently shows only a simple message, "content reported, under review."

In addition to this fake website, there have already been at least two instances where supporters of Scott Walker were witnessed destroying recall petitions. One was documented by Daily Kos community member stcroix cheesehead, and another was reported in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.

Expect more stuff like this throughout the recall drive.

The Lost Opportunities of Iran-Contra, 25 Years Later

The Lost Opportunities of Iran-Contra, 25 Years Later:

It was 25 years ago today that President Ronald Reagan and his attorney-general, Edwin Meese, got up before the press and told a series of half-truths and demonstrable lies about what their administration had been up to as regards dealing with Iran, and how some of the money from that dealing had found its way to the Contra rebels then fighting Reagan's proxy war in Nicaragua. Peter Kornbluh of the essential National Security Archive has a fine overview marking the occasion, complete with links to documents that his organization has pried loose only recently through the Freedom of Information Act.

It remains the great lost opportunity. If the crimes of what became known as the Iran-Contra scandal had been investigated the way they should have been — which is to say, had they been investigated all the way up to criminal indictments at the top of the executive branch, and impeachment inquiries into the conduct of relevant officials, including the president — the political world would have been changed utterly, as Mr. Yeats once put it. The ongoing project of turning Reagan into a secular saint at least would have been slowed to a crawl had an inquiry proven in court that he engaged in peddling arms to a terrorist-sponsoring state. (Instead, when we all went nutty on the subject of terrorism in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, Iran-Contra hardly got a mention and, to this day, people seem more concerned about the Muslim influence on Butterball turkeys than in the fact that Saint Ronnie once sold missiles to the mullahs.) The George H.W. Bush administration might never have happened, for all that would have meant to George W. Bush's eventual career. Criminalizing the constitutional crimes that are the inevitable result of the theory of the "unitary executive" might have encouraged the nation to ignore the ravings of an authoritarian lycanthrope like Richard Cheney.

I can remember what happened instead. Washington decided, quite on its own, that "the country" didn't need another "failed presidency," so what is now known as The Village circled the wagons to...

Much more after the jump