Housing Vacancy Rates Fall and No One Notices

I read Dean Baker because he sees the news that others don't.--SS     

Housing Vacancy Rates Fall and No One Notices:

The Census Bureau reported this week that housing vacancy rates in the third quarter were substantially lower than their year ago level. The vacancy rates for rental units fell from 9.8 percent in third quarter of 2011 to 8.6 percent this year. The vacancy rate for ownership units from 2.4 percent to 1.9 percent. (There are roughly twice as many ownership units as rental units.) The third data quarter data indicates that the housing market is substantially tighter than it was 2-3 years ago, even though vacancy rates are still well above pre-bubble levels.

It is remarkable that the vacancy data receive so little attention. These data were one of the ways that economists could have recognized the housing bubble. While house prices were going through the roof in the years 2002-2006, the vacancy rate was continually hitting new records. Concepts taught in advanced economics classes indicate that the price of items in excess supply are not supposed to be rising. It was therefore not reasonable to expect the run-up in house prices to be sustained given the large amounts of vacant housing available. The reduction in the excess supply is consistent with other data showing a recovering housing market. 

We're Getting A New FOMC For Christmas

Yglesias notes some good news that even a Teabagger House won't be able to stop.--SS     

We're Getting A New FOMC For Christmas:

One question you have to ask yourself about today's good numbers is whether this is really any different than the streak of good data that ended 2011 before fading away. I'm not sure that it is. But if we do see a real recovery in 2013, it'll most likely be because of a better outlook from the Federal Reserve.

I think last year's nascent "Recovery Winter" turned into a bust in part because the Federal Reserve failed to target the forecast, blithely putting out weak projections in early 2012 without doing anything about it. QE 3, though far from my ideal policy, seemed to signal a change in attitude in which Ben Bernanke had created a consensus for the idea that the Fed should be doing enough open market operations to hit its targets. That shifts the debate off the unfruitful terrain of "how much should we do" and onto the more useful grounds of "what should we be trying to accomplish"? And the better news is that starting next year we'll have a better lineup at the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee.

For starters, in early 2013 unlike in early 2012 we'll actually have Barack Obama's full lineup of Federal Reserve Governors in place. His sluggishness in getting this done has been a fiasco and the Senate Republicans' lack of cooperation a scandal but it's done now. But even better, the rotating cast of regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents is going to include Eric Rosengren from Boston and Charles Evans from Chicago—probably the two American central bankers most determined to act forcefully to help the labor market. Evans has been covered extensively on this blog, but though Rosengren has been less outspoken he's always said smart stuff and gave an excellent speech yesterday at Babson College concluding that zero interest rates should persist until unemployment falls to 6.5 percent or so.

The new lineup will also include James Bullard from the St Louis Fed who has misguided ideas on this subject, but he's no worse than Richmond's Jeffrey Lacker and I think his talks are more data-oriented than Lacker's so he may actually be open to persuasion.

Ro-mentum is the new austerity is the new Iraq War

Metrosexual Manichean Monster DougJ of Balloon Juice is hoping for an asteroid again...

Ro-mentum is the new austerity is the new Iraq War:

one wonders why media orgs have been spending so much money on polls all these years if we could learn more from goat entrails
— Atrios (@Atrios) October 31, 2012

Joe Scar wusses out on betting Nate Silver Romney will win. Halperin admits that Romney people think Romney will lose but want the useful Village idiots to pimp Ro-mentum.

Here’s a pretty awesome twofer: Bill “No Labels” Galston pushing austerity as the only political path forward for Democrats…without making a single argument as to why it’s good economic policy.

It’s always the same. Don’t listen to the hippies about Iraq, trust W’s gut. Don’t listen to Paul Krugman about the economy, gubmint should tighten its belt when folks have to. Don’t listen to Nate Silver about the election, trust Joe Scarborough’s gut.

What meteor will rid us of this meddlesome official discourse?

A Tale Of Two Presidents: Clinton Stumps For Obama, While GW Bush...

Bill Clinton is campaigning in WI for Obama today. GW Bush is "campaigning for Obama" in... wait for it... the Cayman Islands today. I kid you not.

The National Memo » A Tale Of Two Presidents: Clinton Stumps For Obama, While Bush Heads To Cayman Islands:

Clinton will spend Thursday on the campaign trail in Waukesha, Wisconsin. Throughout the 2012 campaign — but especially since giving a universally praised nominating speech on Obama’s behalf at the 2012 Democratic convention — Clinton has been Obama’s most effective surrogate, forcefully endorsing the president’s agenda and gleefully attacking Romney and the Republican Party. Forced off the campaign trail by Hurricane Sandy with just six days until the election, Obama has become more reliant on Clinton than ever. In the past several days, the Obama campaign has dispatched Clinton to Ohio, Iowa, and Minnesota — where the former president blasted Romney for the faulty tax plan at the heart of his economic agenda.

Bush, on the other hand, will spend Thursday in the Cayman Islands, delivering the keynote address at the Cayman Alternative Investment Summit. As Romney struggles to convince voters that he understands their economic struggles, having the previous Republican president reminding them of the questions surrounding Romney’s financial dealings in the Caymans is beyond unhelpful.

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Obama at his worst vs. Willard at his best

Via the Daily Kos...

Florida Republican Says Democrats Have Early Turnout Edge

Chill. Obama's got this.

Florida Republican Says Democrats Have Early Turnout Edge:

A memo obtained by NewsChannel5 from a Republican adviser in West Palm Beach, Florida says that the Democratic turnout effort is "cleaning our clock."

The memo says, "The early and absentee turnout is starting to look more troubling."